Since I started blogging most of my focused work in writing has been in the scope of capitalizing on “Clear Thinking” & getting rid of things that can cloud it within my daily life. First attempt was on October 20’ [[How to see more]], then April 21’ [[How to keep a calm mind]], then November [[You just gotta chill - Tame your mind 101]].
Now I am reading a book called “The Art of Thinking Clearly” by author Rolf Dobelli, which is really a sitcom book for clear thinking. It has 100 mini independent chapters, each discusses one cognitive error we humans subconsciously do without giving a deeper thought.
A cognitive error (or a fallacy/a bias) is in basic terms: altering your behavior in a particular situation based on one or more external factors that cause it to happen. After a while our brains get accustomed to these factors being available. These external factors are often distorting reality & controlling our thinking patterns in the background so that we smoothly give in, in many cases without us even knowing.
We can’t possibly evaluate every event with just our thoughts and opinions about them. That's why we rely on these irrational mental shortcuts to speed up our ability to make judgments — often leading to said biases. Some of them are fairly obvious, while others could be much more subtle to even notice.
Academics have been studying these biases for decades and the list has grown over the years. But also these biases have become even more important in the information overload world we live in today.
Over a series of posts, I'm going to write about biases that intrigue me the most. I believe if I can keep them at the back of my head, they'll have less power over me.
Confirmation Bias
The confirmation bias is the father of all fallacies. It is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs, and convictions.
In our early adulthood years, we start searching for meaning, put more concisely: “we start seeking meaning in what we are doing everyday”. Meanings are not absolute facts, but they are flowing conclusions, you & I may reach the same meaning while adopting different beliefs. Once we have it, we start trying to shape new information so that it complements what we already have. And from there we start building confirmation bias & be numb to new information that contradicts our existing conclusions.
As we get more confident in our views, we start filtering out anything that doesn’t conform. If it’s new & weird to us, it messes with our brain, we naturally start building evidence on why we might want to ignore it, in order to keep our initial belief intact.
A vivid example of that might be that people can learn the same lessons whatever their backgrounds are (social, religious, cultural, lifestyle, etc) or learn different lessons despite having similar backgrounds. Religious and philosophical beliefs represent an excellent ground for the confirmation bias.
“What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact” – investor Warren Buffet
It’s a seemingly-dangerous cognitive error, yet an important one for survival. Imagine opening up to any new piece of thought that can alter your entire belief system, but now imagine doing that everyday. Due to the insane stream of information we’re exposed to, this is inevitable. In the end, you & I may adopt the same belief because of confirmation bias cues surrounding us from everywhere, not because we’re necessarily right.
And for this type of bias specifically, gaining power over it means suffering because let me put it like this: the further you get from –cultural, social, …– confirmation bias, the lonelier you are. Because in pursuit of gaining power over your own thoughts, you’re now attempting to find disconfirming evidence (new information that contradicts current views) against massively accepted views, which is the only way for your brain to exit. This is a long & lonely process in many cases, to the point at which just giving in to the confirmation bias is much less mental work.
Why do we reach the same conclusions even if we might be totally different?
People from different walks of life whose daily lives are different & consume other people’s work (books, music, art, documentaries, movies, articles, …) can reach the same conclusions even when there are zero commonalities between these works. Someone who extensively listens to music can find meaning in its lyrics & unlock the same patterns as someone who knows all religious sacred texts by heart. Someone who watches lots of movies can know the same basics about cultures & societies as a historian. Someone who is a professional athlete can unlock the same patterns about mind & body as a scientist who studies theories behind the connection. One found meaning in his sport, the other found it in his studies & work. Both are building towards the same confirmation bias.
The Internet is a particularly fertile ground for the confirmation bias. To stay informed, we browse news sites and blogs, forgetting that our favored pages already mirror our existing values. We inevitably land in communities of like-minded people, further reinforcing our convictions—and the confirmation bias.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored” – writer Aldous Huxley
To fight against confirmation bias, try writing down your beliefs—whether in terms of worldview, investments, marriage, health care, diet, career strategies, etc—and set out to find disconfirming evidence. Axing beliefs that feel like old friends is hard work but imperative.
Also this way you can do it systematically, whenever new observations contradict your existing views, write them down immediately. This is because the brain actively forgets disconfirming evidence after a short time. You now have logs of your existing views and new inputs that might be contradicting them. Again my theory is we can only do this to some extent, & it’ll come with some extra suffering, but it can help on the long-term though.
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