23Mar10 | All makes sense in hindsight

In retrospect, everything seems clear and inevitable. For every uncertainty you deal with, you always know more truth to it after some time. As of today, nothing is guaranteed, we make moves, we take risks, we overthink, but whatever it is, there are no guarantees.

Which brings us to the main driver: Belief 🔁

I think most of those who pulled big visions into existence, they had an insane ability to visualize themselves into their higher states. They saw something no one else could have because of the above effect. Let’s put these two points next to each other:

1. There are no guarantees you’re going to make it, until it happens
2. Biggest part of something big happening is you visualizing it, before it happens

I would even go further: Some visions can NOT happen if you didn’t assemble them in your head like lego. How do you expect the world to give you something you still don’t know in extreme detail?

On June 12, 2005, Steve Jobs said this statement as part of his commencement speech at Stanford University:

"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. Because believing that the dots will connect down the road will give you the confidence to follow your heart even when it leads you off the well worn path; and that will make all the difference.”

The way I see it is: If everything is obvious in hindsight, isn't this enough feedback to shut up when things feel uncertain? If we know for sure we can not connect dots looking forward but can only connect them looking backward, isn't this enough of a reason to trust & wait?

In the book “The Art of Thinking Clearly”, there’s a chapter called Hindsight Bias:

“If a CEO becomes successful due to fortunate circumstances, he will, looking back, rate the probability of his success a lot higher than it actually was.”

“Today, business journalists opine that Google’s dominance was predestined, even though each of them would have snorted had such a prediction been made in 1998.”

Funny enough, at the end of the chapter, author says: “I’m sorry no one could ever overcome this bias, so you just wasted your time reading this chapter.” – Then proceeds:

“I have one final tip, this time from personal rather than professional experience: Keep a journal. Write down your predictions—for political changes, your career, your weight, the stock market, and so on. Then, from time to time, compare your notes with actual developments.”